Paper List
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Simulation and inference methods for non-Markovian stochastic biochemical reaction networks
This paper addresses the computational bottleneck of simulating and performing Bayesian inference for non-Markovian biochemical systems with history-d...
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Translating Measures onto Mechanisms: The Cognitive Relevance of Higher-Order Information
This review addresses the core challenge of translating abstract higher-order information theory metrics (e.g., synergy, redundancy) into defensible, ...
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Emergent Bayesian Behaviour and Optimal Cue Combination in LLMs
This paper addresses the critical gap in understanding whether LLMs spontaneously develop human-like Bayesian strategies for processing uncertain info...
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Vessel Network Topology in Molecular Communication: Insights from Experiments and Theory
This work addresses the critical lack of experimentally validated channel models for molecular communication within complex vessel networks, which is ...
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Modulation of DNA rheology by a transcription factor that forms aging microgels
This work addresses the fundamental question of how the transcription factor NANOG, essential for embryonic stem cell pluripotency, physically regulat...
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Imperfect molecular detection renormalizes apparent kinetic rates in stochastic gene regulatory networks
This paper addresses the core challenge of distinguishing genuine stochastic dynamics of gene regulatory networks from artifacts introduced by imperfe...
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Approximate Bayesian Inference on Mechanisms of Network Growth and Evolution
This paper addresses the core challenge of inferring the relative contributions of multiple, simultaneous generative mechanisms in network formation w...
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An AI Implementation Science Study to Improve Trustworthy Data in a Large Healthcare System
This paper addresses the critical gap between theoretical AI research and real-world clinical implementation by providing a practical framework for as...
Fluctuating Environments Favor Extreme Dormancy Strategies and Penalize Intermediate Ones
Universidad de Córdoba, Spain | Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Italy | Universidad de Granada, Spain
The 30-Second View
IN SHORT: This paper addresses the core challenge of determining how organisms should tune dormancy duration to match the temporal autocorrelation of their environment, revealing that intermediate dormancy times are systematically maladaptive.
Innovation (TL;DR)
- Theory Identifies a generic mechanism where the interplay between demographic delay (dormancy) and environmental autocorrelation generates a strongly non-monotonic fitness landscape.
- Methodology Develops a parsimonious delayed-logistic model with colored multiplicative noise (dichotomous Markov noise) to analytically and numerically dissect the three-regime population performance.
- Biology Demonstrates evolutionary bistability, where selection favors either very short or very long dormancy strategies, systematically avoiding the maladaptive intermediate regime, as confirmed by an agent-based model.
Key conclusions
- For a population near the critical threshold (b ≳ d), the mean linear growth rate G(α) exhibits a local minimum at intermediate dormancy durations when noise amplitude σ or correlation time τ exceed a threshold, making this strategy globally least favorable (Figure 4).
- The stationary mean population density x* shows a pronounced depression (a 'valley') for intermediate α combined with strong environmental noise (σ > 0), which deepens and broadens as σ increases, potentially driving extinction (Figure 3).
- Evolutionary simulations confirm bistable selection: populations evolve towards either very short (α → 0) or very long (α ≳ 5) dormancy extremes, with the intermediate regime (e.g., α = 1) consistently leading to population collapse.
Abstract: Dormancy is a widespread adaptive strategy that enables biological populations to persist in fluctuating environments. Yet how its evolutionary benefits depend on the temporal structure of environmental variability, and whether dormancy can become systematically maladaptive, remains poorly understood. Here we examine how dormancy interacts with environmental correlation times using a parsimonious delayed-logistic model in which dormant individuals reactivate after a fixed lag while birth rates fluctuate under temporally correlated stochasticity. Numerical simulations and analytical calculations reveal that the joint effect of demographic memory and colored multiplicative noise generates a strongly non-monotonic dependence of fitness on dormancy duration, with three distinct regimes of population performance. Very short dormancy maximizes linear growth but amplifies fluctuations and extinction risk. Very long dormancy buffers environmental variability, substantially increasing mean extinction times despite slower growth. Strikingly, and central to our results, there is a broad band of intermediate dormancy durations that is maladaptive, simultaneously reducing both growth and persistence—an effect that arises generically from the mismatch between delay times and environmental autocorrelation. The predicted bistability between short- and long-dormancy strategies is confirmed in an evolutionary agent-based model, which avoids intermediate lag times and selects for evolutionarily stable extremes. Our results show that dormancy duration is not merely a life-history parameter but an adaptive mechanism tuned to environmental timescales, and that “dangerous middle” dormancy times can be inherently disfavored, with implications for understanding persistence in seed banks, microbial persisters, and cancer cell dormancy. More broadly, this work identifies a general mechanism by which demographic delays interacting with correlated environmental variability generate a non-monotonic fitness landscape that selects for extreme timing strategies, and raises fundamental questions on analyzing delayed, non-Markovian dynamics driven by correlated multiplicative noise near absorbing boundaries.