Paper List
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Simulation and inference methods for non-Markovian stochastic biochemical reaction networks
This paper addresses the computational bottleneck of simulating and performing Bayesian inference for non-Markovian biochemical systems with history-d...
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Translating Measures onto Mechanisms: The Cognitive Relevance of Higher-Order Information
This review addresses the core challenge of translating abstract higher-order information theory metrics (e.g., synergy, redundancy) into defensible, ...
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Emergent Bayesian Behaviour and Optimal Cue Combination in LLMs
This paper addresses the critical gap in understanding whether LLMs spontaneously develop human-like Bayesian strategies for processing uncertain info...
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Vessel Network Topology in Molecular Communication: Insights from Experiments and Theory
This work addresses the critical lack of experimentally validated channel models for molecular communication within complex vessel networks, which is ...
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Modulation of DNA rheology by a transcription factor that forms aging microgels
This work addresses the fundamental question of how the transcription factor NANOG, essential for embryonic stem cell pluripotency, physically regulat...
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Imperfect molecular detection renormalizes apparent kinetic rates in stochastic gene regulatory networks
This paper addresses the core challenge of distinguishing genuine stochastic dynamics of gene regulatory networks from artifacts introduced by imperfe...
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Approximate Bayesian Inference on Mechanisms of Network Growth and Evolution
This paper addresses the core challenge of inferring the relative contributions of multiple, simultaneous generative mechanisms in network formation w...
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An AI Implementation Science Study to Improve Trustworthy Data in a Large Healthcare System
This paper addresses the critical gap between theoretical AI research and real-world clinical implementation by providing a practical framework for as...
Fast and Accurate Node-Age Estimation Under Fossil Calibration Uncertainty Using the Adjusted Pairwise Likelihood
Department of Statistics, University of Georgia, Athens, 30601, USA
The 30-Second View
IN SHORT: This paper addresses the dual challenge of computational inefficiency and sensitivity to fossil calibration errors in Bayesian divergence time estimation for large phylogenomic datasets.
Innovation (TL;DR)
- Methodology Introduces two Adjusted Pairwise Likelihood (APW) formulations (APW1 and APW2) that use asymptotic moment-matching weights to correct composite likelihoods within a Bayesian MCMC framework.
- Methodology Demonstrates that APW methods reduce computational cost by more than an order of magnitude compared to full-likelihood methods while maintaining comparable accuracy in node-age estimation.
- Methodology Shows that APW methods exhibit greater robustness to fossil misplacement and prior misspecification due to the reduced sensitivity of composite likelihoods to local calibration errors.
Key conclusions
- APW methods produce node-age estimates statistically comparable to full-likelihood methods across diverse simulation scenarios, with reduced sensitivity to local calibration errors.
- Applied to a genome-scale avian dataset, APW recovered divergence time patterns consistent with recent studies while achieving a >10x reduction in computational cost.
- The robustness of APW to fossil misplacement stems from the composite likelihood's inherent property of being less sensitive to errors in individual calibration points, as demonstrated in simulations modeling various prior misspecifications.
Abstract: Estimating divergence times from molecular sequence data is central to reconstructing the evolutionary history of lineages. Although Bayesian relaxed-clock methods provide a principled framework for incorporating fossil information, their dependence on repeated evaluations of the full phylogenetic likelihood makes them computationally demanding for large genomic datasets. Furthermore, because disagreements in divergence-time estimates often arise from uncertainty or error in fossil placement and prior specification, there is a need for methods that are both computationally efficient and robust to fossil-calibration uncertainty. In this study, we introduce fast and accurate alternatives based on the phylogenetic pairwise composite likelihood, presenting two adjusted pairwise likelihood (APW) formulations that employ asymptotic moment-matching weights to better approximate the behavior of the full likelihood within a Bayesian MCMC framework. Extensive simulations across diverse fossil-calibration scenarios show that APW methods produce node-age estimates comparable to those obtained from the full likelihood while offering greater robustness to fossil misplacement and prior misspecification, due to the reduced sensitivity of composite likelihoods to local calibration errors. Applied to a genome-scale dataset of modern birds, APW methods recover divergence time patterns consistent with recent studies, while reducing computational cost by more than an order of magnitude. Overall, our results demonstrate that adjusted pairwise likelihoods provide a calibration-robust and computationally efficient framework for Bayesian node dating, especially suited for large phylogenomic datasets and analyses in which fossil priors may be uncertain or imperfectly placed.