Paper List
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Exactly Solvable Population Model with Square-Root Growth Noise and Cell-Size Regulation
This paper addresses the fundamental gap in understanding how microscopic growth fluctuations, specifically those with size-dependent (square-root) no...
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Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods for Stochastic Compartmental Models
This paper addresses the core challenge of performing accurate Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic epidemic models when the likelihood functio...
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Realistic Transition Paths for Large Biomolecular Systems: A Langevin Bridge Approach
This paper addresses the core challenge of generating physically realistic and computationally efficient transition paths between distinct protein con...
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MoRSAIK: Sequence Motif Reactor Simulation, Analysis and Inference Kit in Python
This work addresses the computational bottleneck in simulating prebiotic RNA reactor dynamics by developing a Python package that tracks sequence moti...
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The BEAT-CF Causal Model: A model for guiding the design of trials and observational analyses of cystic fibrosis exacerbations
This paper addresses the critical gap in cystic fibrosis exacerbation management by providing a formal causal framework that integrates expert knowled...
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A Theoretical Framework for the Formation of Large Animal Groups: Topological Coordination, Subgroup Merging, and Velocity Inheritance
This paper addresses the core problem of how large, coordinated animal groups form in nature, challenging the classical view of gradual aggregation by...
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ANNE Apnea Paper
This paper addresses the core challenge of achieving accurate, event-level sleep apnea detection and characterization using a non-intrusive, multimoda...
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DeeDeeExperiment: Building an infrastructure for integrating and managing omics data analysis results in R/Bioconductor
This paper addresses the critical bottleneck of managing and organizing the growing volume of differential expression and functional enrichment analys...
Generating a Contact Matrix for Aged Care Settings in Australia: an agent-based model study
University of New South Wales
The 30-Second View
IN SHORT: This study addresses the critical gap in understanding heterogeneous contact patterns within aged care facilities, where existing population-level contact matrices fail to capture the nuanced interactions that drive infection transmission in these high-risk environments.
Innovation (TL;DR)
- Methodology Developed a transferable agent-based modeling framework specifically for aged care settings, parameterized with empirical survey data from 21 aged care workers to capture realistic staff-resident interaction patterns.
- Methodology Integrated proximity-based contact definitions (1.5m and 3m thresholds with 3-second duration) with temporal analysis to identify high-risk contact clustering during structured daily routines like communal activities and care tasks.
- Biology Demonstrated that medium care residents experience the highest infection risk despite not having the highest contact frequency, revealing non-linear relationships between contact patterns and transmission outcomes.
Key conclusions
- Low and medium care residents had the highest contact frequencies (particularly with morning/afternoon shift staff), while high care residents and night staff had substantially fewer contacts, with Poisson regression confirming significant variation by care level and shift (p<0.001).
- Vaccination scenarios reduced predicted transmission by up to 68%, with maximum impact achieved when both staff and residents were vaccinated, demonstrating the multiplicative protective effect of comprehensive vaccination coverage.
- Temporal analysis revealed clustering of high-risk contacts during structured daily routines, with infection risk highest during high-contact shifts and among medium care residents, highlighting the importance of timing in intervention strategies.
Abstract: This study presents an agent-based model (ABM) developed to simulate staff and resident interactions within a synthetic aged care facility, capturing movement, task execution, and proximity-based contact events across three staff shifts and varying levels of resident care. Contacts were defined by spatial thresholds (1.5 m and 3 m) and cumulative duration, enabling the generation of detailed contact matrices. Simulation results showed that low and medium care residents experienced the highest frequency of interactions, particularly with staff on morning and afternoon shifts, while high care residents and night staff had substantially fewer contacts. Contact rates varied significantly by care level and shift, confirmed through Poisson-based regression modelling. Temporal analyses revealed clustering of high-risk contacts during structured daily routines, especially communal and care activities. An integrated airborne transmission module, seeded with a single infectious staff member, demonstrated that infection risk was highest during high-contact shifts and among medium care residents. Vaccination scenarios reduced predicted transmission by up to 68%, with the greatest impact observed when both staff and residents were vaccinated. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for contact heterogeneity in aged care and demonstrate the utility of ABMs for evaluating targeted infection control strategies in high-risk, enclosed environments.