Paper List
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Ill-Conditioning in Dictionary-Based Dynamic-Equation Learning: A Systems Biology Case Study
This paper addresses the critical challenge of numerical ill-conditioning and multicollinearity in library-based sparse regression methods (e.g., SIND...
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Hybrid eTFCE–GRF: Exact Cluster-Size Retrieval with Analytical pp-Values for Voxel-Based Morphometry
This paper addresses the computational bottleneck in voxel-based neuroimaging analysis by providing a method that delivers exact cluster-size retrieva...
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abx_amr_simulator: A simulation environment for antibiotic prescribing policy optimization under antimicrobial resistance
This paper addresses the critical challenge of quantitatively evaluating antibiotic prescribing policies under realistic uncertainty and partial obser...
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PesTwin: a biology-informed Digital Twin for enabling precision farming
This paper addresses the critical bottleneck in precision agriculture: the inability to accurately forecast pest outbreaks in real-time, leading to su...
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Equivariant Asynchronous Diffusion: An Adaptive Denoising Schedule for Accelerated Molecular Conformation Generation
This paper addresses the core challenge of generating physically plausible 3D molecular structures by bridging the gap between autoregressive methods ...
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Omics Data Discovery Agents
This paper addresses the core challenge of making published omics data computationally reusable by automating the extraction, quantification, and inte...
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Single-cell directional sensing at ultra-low chemoattractant concentrations from extreme first-passage events
This work addresses the core challenge of how a cell can rapidly and accurately determine the direction of a chemoattractant source when the signal is...
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SDSR: A Spectral Divide-and-Conquer Approach for Species Tree Reconstruction
This paper addresses the computational bottleneck in reconstructing species trees from thousands of species and multiple genes by introducing a scalab...
Emergent Bayesian Behaviour and Optimal Cue Combination in LLMs
Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab, London, UK | AI Centre, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
30秒速读
IN SHORT: This paper addresses the critical gap in understanding whether LLMs spontaneously develop human-like Bayesian strategies for processing uncertain information, revealing that high accuracy does not guarantee robust multimodal integration.
核心创新
- Methodology Introduces BayesBench, the first psychophysics-inspired behavioral benchmark for LLMs with four magnitude estimation tasks (length, location, distance, duration) across text and image modalities.
- Methodology Develops Bayesian Consistency Score (BCS) to detect Bayes-consistent behavioral shifts even when accuracy saturates, enabling separation of capability from computational strategy.
- Biology Demonstrates emergent Bayesian behavior in capable LLMs without explicit training, with Llama-4 Maverick showing cue-combination efficiency exceeding human biological systems (RRE > 1 against Bayesian oracle).
主要结论
- GPT-5 Mini achieves perfect text accuracy (NRMSE ≈ 0) but fails to integrate visual cues efficiently, showing poor cue-combination efficiency (RRE < 1) despite high capability.
- Llama-4 Maverick demonstrates emergent Bayesian behavior with cue-combination efficiency exceeding Bayesian reliability-weighted baselines (RRE > 1), suggesting non-linear integration strategies.
- Bayesian Consistency Score reveals that more accurate models show stronger evidence of Bayesian behavior, with BCS positively correlated with accuracy across nine evaluated LLMs.
摘要: Large language models (LLMs) excel at explicit reasoning, but their implicit computational strategies remain underexplored. Decades of psychophysics research show that humans intuitively process and integrate noisy signals using near-optimal Bayesian strategies in perceptual tasks. We ask whether LLMs exhibit similar behaviour and perform optimal multimodal integration without explicit training or instruction. Adopting the psychophysics paradigm, we infer computational principles of LLMs from systematic behavioural studies. We introduce a behavioural benchmark - BayesBench: four magnitude estimation tasks (length, location, distance, and duration) over text and image, inspired by classic psychophysics, and evaluate a diverse set of nine LLMs alongside human judgments for calibration. Through controlled ablations of noise, context, and instruction prompts, we measure performance, behaviour and efficiency in multimodal cue-combination. Beyond accuracy and efficiency metrics, we introduce a Bayesian Consistency Score that detects Bayes-consistent behavioural shifts even when accuracy saturates. Our results show that while capable models often adapt in Bayes-consistent ways, accuracy does not guarantee robustness. Notably, GPT-5 Mini achieves perfect text accuracy but fails to integrate visual cues efficiently. This reveals a critical dissociation between capability and strategy, suggesting accuracy-centric benchmarks may over-index on performance while missing brittle uncertainty handling. These findings reveal emergent principled handling of uncertainty and highlight the correlation between accuracy and Bayesian tendencies. We release our psychophysics benchmark and consistency metric as evaluation tools and to inform future multimodal architecture designs111Project webpage: https://bayes-bench.github.io.